Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.072934 0.084108 0.096801 0.112365 0.131041 0.152863 0.180483
2025-11-02 0.054628 0.067569 0.083583 0.105106 0.133660 0.170792 0.223648
2025-11-09 0.041545 0.054400 0.071472 0.096276 0.132205 0.183674 0.265488
2025-11-16 0.034199 0.047209 0.065670 0.094584 0.140274 0.212523 0.341634
2025-11-23 0.028512 0.041263 0.060476 0.092736 0.148118 0.244628 0.439013
2025-11-30 0.024547 0.037134 0.057211 0.093279 0.160530 0.290022 0.586459
2025-12-07 0.021286 0.033521 0.054083 0.093437 0.172874 0.341733 0.782996
2025-12-14 0.018167 0.029605 0.049708 0.090376 0.178520 0.383812 0.993232
2025-12-21 0.014993 0.025079 0.043431 0.082208 0.171174 0.394521 1.133689
2025-12-28 0.013333 0.022993 0.041300 0.082044 0.182230 0.458463 1.511543
2026-01-04 0.012145 0.021589 0.040230 0.083973 0.199588 0.552113 2.128122
2026-01-11 0.010995 0.020075 0.038662 0.084424 0.213747 0.647866 2.925651
2026-01-18 0.009957 0.018659 0.037119 0.084789 0.228966 0.764158 4.114720
2026-01-25 0.008891 0.017028 0.034815 0.082656 0.236170 0.859832 5.475088
2026-02-01 0.007845 0.015292 0.031974 0.078385 0.234912 0.922348 6.843586
2026-02-08 0.007226 0.014397 0.030957 0.079025 0.251808 1.092595 10.039301
2026-02-15 0.006656 0.013529 0.029853 0.079151 0.267451 1.280922 14.745964
2026-02-22 0.006231 0.012932 0.029325 0.080966 0.291644 1.561240 23.616075
2026-03-01 0.005828 0.012330 0.028676 0.082244 0.314982 1.883398 38.227871
2026-03-08 0.005353 0.011493 0.027257 0.080534 0.323862 2.120714 55.875722
2026-03-15 0.004761 0.010302 0.024684 0.074096 0.305916 2.106080 64.607169
2026-03-22 0.004470 0.009823 0.024034 0.074515 0.324840 2.486506 107.606083
2026-03-29 0.004262 0.009528 0.023860 0.076712 0.355916 3.089718 210.414344